How leaders allocate their limited time and attention is an important question in economics. This paper constructs and analyzes a novel data set covering the daily calendars of three Federal Reserve ...

Zahan Turel, a backend engineer and eighth-generation Zoroastrian priest from Surat, received a grant to digitize his community’s manuscripts and liturgical records before they are lost. Aditya Vijay, ...

No surprise to me but a new paper looks at the forecast accuracy of over one million prediction questions from Polymarket, ...

Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Here is one excerpt: Cowen: Talk me out of this worry: So we agree science is an ecosystem, and there’s always a temptation to want to fund the most dynamic, ...

In January 2025 my mom’s lung cancer spread to her brain. The drug with the best chance of helping her was approved in China but not here. A doctor told me, almost as an aside, that if she were ...

Using a stacked difference-in-differences design covering shootings between 1990 and 2025, I compare cohorts at affected universities before and after the shooting with cohorts at matched control ...

Will AI poison the public finances of many modern states? There is a real risk that it will. Yesterday, I circulated a new paper, “Saving for the Machines,” which makes a simple point. Building the AI ...

We study the role of foreign ideas in U.S. innovation by constructing a directed “genealogy” of technologies from the full text of 13 million patents filed between 1887 and 2024. By tracing which ...

What happens across generations to wealth shocks? Do they endure and even magnify, or do they dissipate? By implication, how much modern wealth is attributable to events before 1900? This paper uses ...

This paper examines the revenue and migration impact of the 2026 California Billionaire Tax Act, a one-time 5 percent tax on the worldwide net worth of individuals exceeding $1 billion. Using data ...

At some point AI will be more regulated than it is today.  Furthermore, I believe that most parts of the American economy, once they are regulated, end up overregulated. Thus it is likely that the AI ...

When machines can perform a growing share of tasks, growth depends on two margins: how the task structure affects the returns to accumulating machines, and how strongly capital accumulation responds ...